2026年全球能源和材料展望-貝恩.pdf

2026年全球能源和材料展望-貝恩。The past five years have tested assumptions about global energy and materials markets. Supply chain shocks, a shifting ESG movement, and two wars with significant impact on energy flows have heightened uncertainty for executives: How fast are markets growing, and how is policy shaping them? Where are demand and margin pools moving? What supply bottlenecks will shape new developments? Where to invest, and when? That uncertainty only reaffirms Bain’s long-standing view of the fundamentals: Energy demand rises with GDP, population growth, and industrial activity. The system’s ability to meet demand is constrained by the physical and engineering realities of what can be built, how fast it can be built, and the availability of materials, capital, and energy resources. Policymakers aim to improve standards of living, but lowest cost remains the deciding factor, making sustained investment more difficult. Those fundamentals mean efforts to solve the dual challenge—the world needs more energy even as it transitions to a lower carbon footprint—will be uneven and, in some scenarios, messy. Across industries, the best decisions about energy transition pathways and value creation will be based on plausible outcomes that are grounded in market data, physical realities, technology development, and trade dynamics.